Forecasting Americans’ long-term adoption of connected and autonomous vehicle technologies

University of Texas, January 1, 2017

Automobile enterprises, researchers, and policymakers are interested in knowing the future of 21 connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs). To this end, this study proposes a new simulation22 based framework to forecast Americans’ long-term (year 2015 to 2045) adoption levels of CAV 23 technologies under eight different scenarios based on: 5% and 10% annual drops in technology 24 prices; 0%, 5%, and 10% annual increments in Americans’ willingness to pay (WTP); and 25 changes in government regulations.

https://www.caee.utexas.edu/prof/kockelman/public_html/TRB16CAVTechAdoption.pdf