America’s fleet evolution in an automated future

University of Texas, January 14, 2018

Cost reductions and technological advancements are priming autonomous, electric, and shared vehicles for rapid growth, which may improve safety and mobility, but also possibly increase VMT. This study seeks to improve upon existing fleet evolution work, by simulating adoption of autonomous, electric, and shared vehicles in a single fleet evolution simulation, calibrated with results of a recent survey of Americans. Statistical models are used in the MATLAB-based simulation to model decisions regarding vehicle transactions, travel behavior, and land use decisions.

http://www.caee.utexas.edu/prof/kockelman/public_html/TRB19USfleetevolutionSAEVs.pdf